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Neal: Some software gurus say you can't predict the market direction. |
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Nina: There are ways of knowing where the market is going. An accurate answer to that question is a function of how much time and effort you're willing to put in. There are ways to determine how markets are going to move, and if you're willing to do the work, you can be very accurate indeed. So I would disagree and would take the other side and say yes, you can tell where the markets are going. |
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Neal: With what kind of time frame? |
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Nina: It doesn't make any difference what kind of time frame. I'll explain that. I do a lot of work with Elliott Wave, which is a sophisticated way of looking at cycles. Using cycles can be a remarkably accurate technique to determine where things are going, in any number of time frames. |
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Neal: People say that we're entering a new era of economics. The old days don't mean anything. It's a whole new world. Can you explain some of the major cycles that have occurred? |
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Nina: Well, the classic statement is, "It's different this time." In fact, it really isn't. It's just that the details change a bit. Markets are driven by psychology. Underlying this is a sort of lemminglike shift from one side of the spectrum to the other, from being very optimistic to being very pessimistic. And individuals' decisions made along the way tend to reflect the level of optimism at a particular point in time. So it's never different. It's always a variation of what's happened before. |
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Neal: So it's like your son or daughter saying, "Mom, you don't know what it's like to be in love. It's different for us. You've never felt this way." |
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